Steingrimur J. Sigfusson, Iceland’s Finance Minister has told the press that this Saturday’s Icesave referendum will be perfectly pointless and a waste of money if a new contract is on the table. Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir meanwhile did not rule out the possibility of delaying the plebiscite for one week.
A national referendum on the so-called Icesave law is due to be held this Saturday following President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson’s January decision not to ratify the bill. The referendum will go ahead as scheduled unless the British and Dutch governments agree to renegotiate the deal which is widely expected to be rejected by voters. One of the main reasons it is likely to be rejected is because the terms being voted on are less favourable than a more recent Anglo Dutch offer which the Icelandic side rejected.
The leader of the opposition Independence Party, Bjarni Benediktsson has meanwhile stated that the referendum should go ahead on schedule without question as there has been no clear indication yet that the British and Dutch are willing to offer a significantly better deal.
Progressive Party leader Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson told RUV that although the public will likely vote ‘no’ in the referendum, there is no indication that the current government will split as a result.
Waste of money, obviously.
Ignoring that it’s notoriously hard to get people to agree to necessary but painful actions, how does the referendum do anything that a poll could not?
In this case though, it’s even worse than that. At least a poll would be on the current offer, whereas the referendum is based on an older offer. You would have to be a total moron to vote “yes” to 5.5% when 3%-4% plus interest holiday is already on the table.
That said, it should definitely not be delayed. If there’s going to be public pressure on the Icelandic government, best to crystallise that so that the negotiators can make decisions based on political reality.
Hopefully the court case will be over in another 18 months :) .
It seems that the pressure is not only felt by Iceland because of of the possible out come of interest and payment but Briyain and Holland also fells it because of the possible negative reaction after the referendum. A referendum is maybe the best possible barometer of opinion. Whatever maybe the result, do consider the aggravating circumstances affecting the case specially the Anti-Terrorist law and the isolation of Iceland from the International community, Blockade, means and the duration of payment plus 5.6 interest, the horrendous effects because the creditors are greater than the population and most have already relocated to other countries due to unemployment, force and intimidation. Taxes have also increased so much and the cost of living high. Lots of points to ponder.
Before Iceland was among the Top but financially stable locality, now, it is the other way around because of the nefarious activities of a few. Do not beg, stand still, whatever be the outcome, be transparent and fair. Dignity with humility so Iceland may rise again.
Wish you all the best.
It is not a waste of money, when you are showing the will of he people, so people should no leasten to this brain death perosn(steingrimur) who said 3 months ago that that was the best deal we could ever get, and look it was possible to get a better one, now they are trying to rest importance to the vote so people dont take it seriously and don´t go to vote. But the referendum should go on it is important and it´s the law.
Is this question about the referendum not a poll about a poll??
Bromley manages to agree to both options.
The mere fact that the referendum is happening has had favourable effect on the negotiations to the benefit of iceland.
The mere fact that interest rates have dropped since with an alleged saving to the beleagured impoverished Icelandic State of many millions of £ €, surely is enough of an answer and who knows what further ‘joyous’ consequences await the Iceland people post referendum.
Debt! Debt! Debt! Lovely Debt! Lovely Debt!
but a little less.
“It seems that the pressure is not only felt by Iceland because of of the possible out come of interest and payment but Briyain and Holland also fells it because of the possible negative reaction after the referendum.”
I doubt UK/NL will feel any pressure after the referendum. They offered a multi year interest-free period, so Iceland is eating into the ‘free money’ time anyway. The damage it will do to Iceland will be far worse; possibly the reason so many people will actually vote yes, as illogical as it may seems.
The UK/NL should simply continue to wait and offer nothing else; they could also withdraw the offer and give worse terms as the rush was to prevent the vote damaging the concept of sovereign debt.
Lee Buchheit, heading the current Icelandic delegation, thinks that a national referendum is Iceland’s strongest weapon in negotiations:
http://www.amx.is/fuglahvisl/14254/
It’s not clear why he thinks that but you can guess that a referendum forces the UK/NL to be reasonable in its demands, otherwise an agreement will never be approved.
This line of thinking might be correct — if the Icelandic government can show the people that the next version of an agreement is in fact reasonable (i.e. 700 billion ISK, super-priority for TIF, interest = libor), and if the Icelanders don’t fall back on the crazy idea that they don’t have to pay anything at all.
>Progressive Party leader Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson told RUV that although the public will likely vote ‘no’ in the referendum, there is no indication that the current government will split as a result.
That is because they have no honour.
But also it could simply be back room deal already between the Social Democrats and Progressive Party to form new government.
( This I do not like sound of because of Progressive Party poor record on being flip flopping about EU member statehood and of course horrible opportunism of Social Democrats — same opportunism that did make fall of the 2007 – 2009 coaliution they did have with Independence Party in January 2009. )
“That is because they have no honour.”
Politicians have no concept of honour.
“But the referendum should go on it is important and it´s the law”.
I think Easy is correct, I don’t think there are grounds to postpone it, unless there is another better offer agreed and a bill presented in parliament. Also it probably is a good negotiating point- it has already produced a significantly better offer than before. I can’t comment on backroom deals in Icelandic politics!
I think there is a more important point to this referndum…
But First: I find it rather insulting if my government calls my constitutional rights ” a farce” and “a waste of time and money”…but it shows once again what our political class (or kaste?) is thinking of its own people…and that includes all parliament parties!
Now, the referndum…it is not only about striking a new deal. this new deal also would have to go than first into parliamental discussions and finally to the President for signing. The main point I see here is our Icelandic Constitution. The constitution says, as weh ave been many times informed when the President vetoed the bill, that the disputed Icesave-legislaiton is in force until revoked by a public referendum.
That means, right now this bill most Iclanders are against is in fact legally a law! And the only way right now to get this law out of action is the referendum! Without this vote now on March 6th, the bad Icesave law will stay in place! That’s the constitutional side of this situation.
Of coruse, i think the partliament could avoid the public vote by calling in a new session and revoke this law! But as they don’t do that, the referndum is tyhe onlpy legal way and option we have. IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH A NEW OFFER and therefore there is no reason and there should be no reason why the referendum should be postponed until a new deal is done …This is about getting the old deal out of our laws! Why has this not been mentioned before by our so called politicians ?
@Vilhjalm Antonsen
“interest = libor”
dont be stupid. libor is defined for loans over periods up to one year in length. there is a in fcat a series of libor values. the one quoted in papers etc is 3-month libor. so if iceland is planning to repay the loan after 3 months then libor is applicable. GREAT. Go ahead guys, let the brits charge libor and you can pay it back in three months. thats fair.
but you’re not. so dont be daft. try to talk sense. for loans beyond one year you quote libor + extra. the ‘extra’ follows the yield curve, which is normally increasing over time. the number being used for loans amongst the nordics is euribor + 2.75% (euribor is the euro version of libor) and that applies to debts maturing in 5 to 10 years. at that level the lender is ‘breaking even’ on your loan and the borrower is getting the money ‘at cost’.
and these are the same people who think they are making an informed choice in the ballot. they don’t even know what the interest rate means!!!!!!!
More excuses and lame tactics of distraction coming near you soon!!
Provided by the puppet masters!!
“and these are the same people who think they are making an informed choice in the ballot. they don’t even know what the interest rate means!!!!!!!”
I have made my desicion, i will vote NO March 6th, Icelanders take this very seriously and there is not a living soal here who has not thougt this trough, ca 85-90% of voters should be expected to turn up as usual and according to polls 80% of voters will reject this deal, they will do that for a number of reasons, not just because of interest rates, funny you should mention “informed choise”
do you think politicians or the bankers who sponsor them have been making “informed choises”
the USA and half of Europe are on the brink of a collapse, not because of failure of capitalism, but because of all the fraud going on, its far more than any system could survive, teamed with political corruption it gives a very twisted image of the real situation, so its irreperable and and only a matter of time.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/14/business/global/14debt.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6gzad54t1U&feature=channel
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjS9_IZiJRY&NR=1
aha axel. we’ve been told about this iceland habit. when cornered talk about something else. quick. make a comparison. do not answer the question. lets talk what words mean. gummi made a joke at you. and you do it quickly after.
Tanya
“and these are the same people who think they are making an informed choice in the ballot. they don’t even know what the interest rate means!!!!!!!”
I started reading the Vanity Fair article and since reading it the first time I’ve realised that its a very accurate portrayal of Iceland; Iceland is governed by a small tribe of highly educated people who lack common sense.
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2009/04/iceland200904?currentPage=1
However, to quote Wiki; “Often ideas that may be considered to be true by common sense are in fact false” which suggest that its possible Icelanders ‘Common Sense’ is present but different in the ways its wrong. Its already been pointed out that Icelanders have flaws in their education system that results in fundamental gaps in their knowledge of the laws of mathematics and that they don’t seem understand such fundamentals as the definition of the word ‘Guarantee’,'Legally Binding’.
Could Icelanders have no understanding of Interest rates? possibly, it comes from living on a Island with a tiny population who went from being to the poorest to richest nation in Europe within a decade becuase of their self proclaimed financial genius.
This is an open forum and I do hope that Peter of London will also be honest with facts. The government deficit is also felt and denial is unhealthy so is bullying people.
This referendum is a barometer of opinion. The fact that the citizen is standing responsible for the account. The account fraudulent in nature and committed by the nefarious few, also deposited in Britain. The Anti Terrorist Law, international blochade, interest, duration and means of payment and other points to ponder. Whatever maybe the result now, the citizen participates unlike before there was no transparency, just to wake up bankrupt and isolated. The sad reality that even the future generation will suffer.
It is very important to vote, some people say that we shouldent vote anymore that this is a farce, that a better deal is allready ther, but they forget that the bill passed on December is still in effect unless the people vote it down, if people dont vote, the bill remains. The president did not rejected the bill it in fact is law, he only gave people the chance to rject it, if we dont rejecet it, that is in fact effective as we speak.
Tanya says:
March 4, 2010 at 8:06 am
“aha axel. we’ve been told about this iceland habit. when cornered talk about something else. quick. make a comparison. do not answer the question.”
Another xenophobe, where do you all come from?
Icelandic habit? ‘Shifting the goalposts’ is an universal standard ailment.
In this case interest rates is only one part of a wide picture
The article question is, is the referendum a waste of money or a necessary barometer of public opinion?
If you want to moan about how uninformed that opinion is, then i’d assume you would question the necessity of the barometer of opinion. In this context the barometer would not be a measure of atmospheric pressure (a topic which Icelanders are already most informed), but rather the reflection of change in awareness and opinion about this burning issue. I have already commented on the alleged financial gain, from what I gather, the level of awareness of the issues at stake has increased due to the debate. The referendum on Saturday is a natural part
of that expression.
To Tanya,
I do not see the reason why you are still discussing the EURIBOR+2.75% rate, since the Icelandic negotiation team already refused it. In fact, it would be crazy risk for Iceland to accept a variable interest rate for such a long period. And yes, we do now what EURIBOR is.
You are rest assured we know exactly what we are doing with the referendum on Saturday. We are saying NO to an agreement that is extremely unfair and, completely unacceptable to us.
I do not see the reason why you are still discussing the EURIBOR+2.75% rate, since the Icelandic negotiation team already refused it.
Obviously in the context of the Icelandic offer of LIBOR/EURIBOR +0%.
I see we have some ballpark estimates available now for the short term cost of not reaching an agreement.
Assuming that the IMF/Nordics loans are delayed (and Sweden has just said that there’s no plan B) for several months, the contraction in the Icelandic economy is estimated to increase from 2-3% to 5%.
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2010/03/04/business/business-uk-iceland.html
So, GDP $12bn. Contraction say 2.5% higher than it might have been gives $300m.
There was a definite financial gain from scheduling the referendum – the tabled offer improved the situation by something like $600m (the two year interst free period) and extremely roughly $50m per year on the interest side after that. Of course, the credit rating dropped, but that might recover before 2011.
bjarni
becuase vilhaljm antosen said this. keep up!
Says Bjarni: “You are rest assured we know exactly what we are doing with the referendum on Saturday.”
Well said Bjarni!
For you foreigners out there, our ballot:
………….
YES! I agree to have my rosy-cheeked infants locked in cattle cars and shipped off to the Nike factory in Sierra Leon. There they will sew trainers for Gordon Brown, who shall administer daily beatings and provide good Scottish fare, to wit: one bowl of gruel and one deep-fried Mars bar daily. After 20 years indenture they’ll come home with a robust Scottish physique and Mr. Brown’s delightful Scottish inflection.
NO
Upon sober consideration, I’d rather not.
SIGN HERE
X
I swear I am a citizen of the Icelandic Republic and am at this moment not drunk
………….
I predict a close election.
Afram!
Gummi
Gummi said
“I predict a close election”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAELyZYam5E
To Tanya:
I rather keep up with the actual negotiations and the referendum.
You were taking Vilhjalm’s points and somehow expanding them to make the case, that people in Iceland had no idea what they were doing in the referendum:
“and these are the same people who think they are making an informed choice in the ballot. they don’t even know what the interest rate means!!!!!!!”
But you are wrong, we know exactly what we are doing.
If there ever will be an agreement (which after this failure, is unfortunately now very unlikely), it will definitely NOT contain a variable interest rate. Variable rates have actually been suggested several times in the past by the UK/NL, but always been (correctly) refused by the Icelandic side, as we know full well how dangerous it is.
>Its already been pointed out that Icelanders have flaws in their education system that results in fundamental gaps in their knowledge of the laws of mathematics and that they don’t seem understand such fundamentals as the definition of the word ‘Guarantee’,’Legally Binding’.
Secret reasons ! Secret flaws !
Poppy cock.
If Mike had wanted to actually have a strong arguemtn for this he would have in that thread explained what exactly he thinks is missing.
It is just stunt to try and bring doubt into some Icelandic people’s minds. We cant debate on ghosts and secret information.
Maybe he can give it to wikileaks if he doesnt want to be seen to tell it.
They have had plenty of fun in source informations leaked from UK sources in this, such as Kuapthing Loan book.
” YES! I agree to have my rosy-cheeked infants locked in cattle cars and shipped off to the Nike factory in Sierra Leon. There they will sew trainers for Gordon Brown, who shall administer daily beatings and provide good Scottish fare, to wit: one bowl of gruel and one deep-fried Mars bar daily. After 20 years indenture they’ll come home with a robust Scottish physique and Mr. Brown’s delightful Scottish inflection.
NO
Upon sober consideration, I’d rather not.
SIGN HERE
X
I swear I am a citizen of the Icelandic Republic and am at this moment not drunk. ”
Actually the Yes side reasoning you give there is not far enough away from actual retchedness of original iceSave agreement to be racously funny that you other posts are by Gummi.
If you want to read actually what has been sent to all house holds in Iceland, and waht we are voting based on tomorrow ( Saturday 6th March 2010 referendum) it can be read in English version here :
http://www.thjodaratkvaedi.is/images/stories/thjodaratkv_ENSKA_Vefur_m.pdf
+If Mike had wanted to actually have a strong arguemtn for this he would have in that thread explained what exactly he thinks is missing.
http://www.icenews.is/index.php/2009/10/10/record-number-of-student-graduates-in-iceland/#comment-95842 :
” Look at the maths at framhaldskoli. This is taught in a series of separate modules: STAE103, STAE203, … STAE603 plus some extra ones and variations around the edges. Now if you get the chance go to Mal og Menning and look at the text books. On the face of it these look pretty standard. But then you look closely and see that often there is standard mathematical knowledge that is missing. It’s very odd once you see these blind spots. We checked at university level – the gaps were never addressed. So what you have is a population that generation-to-generation passes on its ignorance – because they are not even aware that they are ignorant. (This is one of the problems of having such a small society. With few specialists gaps can appear in even general knowledge.) Once you know what your counterparties don’t know then you can begin to work that to your advantage. You can make lots of money using this Icelandic mathematical ignorance. (And for that reason I won’t tell you what the gaps are!) “
We don’t give in to terrorist’s…
It has to be a principal foundation of a soveraeign nation.
Strange enough (or not), in PISA research (general overview link http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Programme_for_International_Student_Assessment) into the education standards of the OECD member states, Iceland comes out significantly well.
link 2006 research
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/15/13/39725224.pdf
In 2003 this test focussed on Mathematics.
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/1/60/34002216.pdf
re Mathematics Performance
“Other countries with mean performances significantly above the OECD average were the Netherlands, Switzerland, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, Belgium, Australia, Denmark, the Czech Republic, Iceland and Austria, as well as the partner countries/economies Macao-China, Liechtenstein, Estonia and Slovenia”
Came across this site by accident and have to register my surprise for the ‘No’ vote regarding Icelands debt to UK and Holland. No only joking, what the hell does your Goverment expect you to do, I wish ours would do the same, eg. a vote whether we should have compensated people who had money in your Banks or better still whether we should have bailed out our own Banks.
I wish ours would do the same, eg. a vote whether we should have compensated people who had money in your Banks or better still whether we should have bailed out our own Banks.
Really? In that case you’ve come to the right place, because Iceland is a text book exaple of what happens to an economy when all of its banks become insolvent. That’s what the intervention in the UK was designed to prevent.
As any Icelander who had shares what a fun ride it’s been. Likewise, ask anyone with a pension how happy they are. And, even ignoring currency effects, mortgagees and those with loans probably aren’t super-happy at the high interest rates necessary.
vic163, I wonder what kind of life you have? Obviously you don’t have a savingsaccount that could be wiped out by a collapse of the financial system. And you don’t have a job in the private sector, because otherwise you would be hit when your employer can’t pay out your wages because its bank just collapsed. And you are not on government support, because that would get very minimal when millions of people become unemployed after a collapse of the financial sector. And I guess you are not a pensioner either, because the assets of pension funds would be wiped out by the catastrophic economic collapse that would follow a big banking crisis.
People keep saying that the bailout of the banks was for the benefit of the banks. It was not. It was for the benefit of the millions upon millions of people with savingsaccounts, of pensioners drawing money from pension funds, of people with jobs whose companies rely on credit from banks to stay alive. Yes, bankers did also profit from the bailout, and that sucks, but noone profitted more from the bailout than simple Joe Sixpack.
I agree with your comments, mine were made partly to get a reaction. The main problem we now have is the banks that were saved by the taxpayer are treating those taxpayers with contempt, bonuses etc. Our whole banking system needs streamlining, sadly leading to the loss of jobs. If the situation was reversed, then I’m sure that we would vote the same way. Good luck
“People keep saying that the bailout of the banks was for the benefit of the banks. It was not. It was for the benefit of the millions upon millions of people with savingsaccounts, of pensioners drawing money from pension funds, of people with jobs whose companies rely on credit from banks to stay alive. Yes, bankers did also profit from the bailout, and that sucks, but noone profitted more from the bailout than simple Joe Sixpack.”
The entire banking sector in Iceland collapsed in one week, and we are still here, the fact is that they are a burden on the society,
banks today are run like casinos owned by thieves, they should not be bailed out, let them drow in their own pool of sh*t, they deserve it.
Axel, I hate to burst your bubble, but the Icelandic government did save its banks, at least the internal Icelandic part of it. New Landsbanki for example is a continuation of Old Landsbanki with Icelandic deposits and assets. If you really ‘let them fail’, then you have your whole population and all its companies cut off from its deposits and credit lines until the estate of the failed bank is resolved, which can take a few years.
Leo,
Totally agree with you. I would like to add though that the present NEW icelandic banks are just phoney banks pushing around phoney money which has no value outside of Iceland while they depend on foreign funding.
If this funding stops and these NEW banks will REALLY fail we’ll speak to yo again, Axel .
I wonder how you’ll feel when you will have to hide your money in an old sock and when you will be forced to repay all your credits immediately to the debti-collector of your old/new bank.
This merely shows that many icelanders have no idea about the way financial systems work.