“HERE

USD 0,91% 125,46 126,11
GBP 1,09% 208,21 209,27
DKK 1,04% 25,111 25,262
NOK 0,95% 22,108 22,241
SEK 1,34% 17,973 18,082
CHF 1,11% 123,69 124,43
JPY 1,55% 1,3924 1,4012
EUR 1,04% 186,88 188,00
GVT 1,04% 239,14 240,66″

Where is HERE?

On Nov 7th, SIR EURO said: “AND WILL GET WORSE NEXT WEEK AND NEXT SPRING. DON´T BE SURPRISED IF WE GET 1 EUR 250 ISK AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT YEAR. IT WONT BE FOR TOO LONG BUT WE COULD SEE NUMBERS AROUND THAT FOR MANY WEEKS..”

Next week? Yesterday, November 13th:

ICB: 186 per Euro.
XE: 186.5 per Euro.
Forex: 182.8 per Euro.
Yahoo: 186,35 per Euro.
More ????

I would not be surprised if Krona get 250 next year. I would be surprised if ICB lifts capital controls and atmosphere is not good! And, yes, we could see numbers around that for many weeks. WORK + WORK + WORK!

“PLEAS JORGE, WATCH THE ALÞINGI CHANNEL ON TV. AND YOU WILL SEE HOW THE SITUATION IS. THOSE GUYS DON´T AGREE IN ANYTHING BUT KEEPING THROWING **** TO EACH OTHER´S FACES WHILE ICELAND SINKS…”

Gus, I watched the Althingi channel on tv, and, really, it is not a surprise for me: if you look for surprises, have a look at the spanish parliament: there, you will watch guys do not agree in anything but keeping throwing **** to each other’s faces while Spain, a country with 17 mini regions -countries today- sinks. If the Premier looks for a stable Government, four years, he must fall into line: more taxes, money for this region -really country-, money for that region -really country-, money here, money there, much money, money, money, … : can a boat survive with 17 mini nationalist countries? Very difficult: nationalisms -> corruption -> … : this is the reason because I said long ago: I would fumigate some European parliaments. And, I swear, I would do it!

“AND NOW, JUST WAIT UNTIL YOU START PAYING 50% OF TAXES ( INSTEAD OF THE ALREADY HIGH 38% YOU PAY NOW) THAT WILL MEAN THAT IF YOU ARE LUCKLY MAKING 1000 EUROS NOW, YOU WILL MAKE LIKE 800 THIS NEW COMING YEAR. THE AVERAGE SALARY IN ICELAND IS AROUND 140.000 ISK ( THE AVERAGE, NOT THE LOWEST, BECAUSE MANY PEOPLE GET PAID WAY LESS THAN THAT). SO THE AVERAGE SALARY IN ICELAND IS 750 EUROS A MONTH. NEXT YEAR, WITH THE NEW TAXES SYSTEM, PEOPLE HERE WILL BE MAKING 500 EUROS A MONTH. LETS SAY, THE SAME SALARIES AS IN ALBANIA OR ROMANIA. EVEN IN POLAND THEY ARE HAVING HIGHER SALARIES THAN IN ICELAND NOW.”

1000 Euro now is more than 2000 Euro two year ago: 85-185isk against Euro. Krona has dropped drastically; again, same thing, Iceland in year 2006 will not be the one in years 2009-2010-2011-… , This is/will be a reality, OK? !!!

50% of taxes is not for 140000 krona salary, OK? !!!

Salaries in Albania and Romania are not Euro 500 but 150 and 200 Euro per month, OK? !!!

“I KNOW THAT YOU ALL KEEP LIVING IN DREAMS AND ROMANTIC FEELINGS BASED ON THE RICH ICELAND… BUT ICELAND IS POOR NOW, IT IS NOT JUST POOR, IT IS RUINED!!!”

Yes, it is a ruined country today; are you happy now?

“EVEN IN SPAIN YOU GET 1200 FROM THE GOVERNMENT IF YOU ARE UNEMPLOYED AND HAVE JUST 1 CHILD. IN ICELAND, WORKING LIKE HELL, PEOPLE WILL GET 500 EUROS A MONTH… I KNOW, DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE. IT WILL TAKE ONE YEAR OR TWO FOR ICELANDERS TO PSYCHOLOGICALLY ADAPT TO THEIR NEW SITUATION OF BEING POOR.”

What???? In Spain you get 420 Euro from the Government if you are unemployed –unemployment aid-, and, if you have a child, 2400 Euros (200 per month). Of course, if I am the Spanish Premier: bye bye to the 2400 Euros and bye bye to the 420 Euros: only 150 or 200. CUT + CUT + CUT + CUT & WORK + WORK + WORK + WORK!

@JIM

“The UK base rate is currently abnormally low at 0.5%. It will raise again in 2010, unless the recession extends much longer than predicted, by at least 2%. No party atmosphere from increased base rates. That 5-fold increase will in increase the value of the pound against most currencies – that the way currency markets work.”

2% is not a party atmosphere again ????? !!!! HAHAHAHA

It would increase the value of the Pound if rest of Central Banks do not raise their policy rates. If rest of Central Banks -FED, ECB, .. – do raise their policy rates, what would be the increase of the value of the Pound against the Euro or Dollar ???!!!

Incredible some posts here!!!!!!! HAHAHA!!

///////////////////////////////////////////////

@EASY

“This is an intersting piece of data: today at arround 2 o’clock the krona had lost about 1.3%, the central bank had to inject 3 million euros to put the krona back to about 185, so if 3,000,000 euros set the krona back 1.3% how much would 300 million set the krona back? it wold send the krona to 370ISK per euro. There are 6,000 billion euros of forign investeors in Iceland just waiting to fly away, lets say that through deals and some selling off the little that is left of the country we can manage to convince half of that money not to leave the country, so if only 3,000 million flee the contry we have a krona at about 3000ISK per euro, so either we have a 3000ISK per euro krona or we can not ever again float the krona, so, one thing or another the krona is dead, there is no cure for the ISK, we have to adopt other currency, sooner or later we have to do it, so the real value of the krona os CERO, there is no chance in a million to float the krona, and the moment they do it it will drop like what it really is, a dead fly.”

Your posts are very interesting, as always!

I did lose the count of your calculation. Would it be ISK2000 per Euro, in that case?!

About 6bn Euro of foreign invertors in Iceland just waiting to fly away: figure is debatable; reliable sources say Krona 600bn. (US$ 5bn = Euro 3,3bn) If we manage to convince half of that money not to leave the country, so if only Euro 1,65bn flee the country, we have a Krona at 1200 per Euro. Anyway, neither 2000 nor 1200 would save Iceland. Hard work is necessary and, ICB works now!

If there is no cure for the ISK, and Iceland must adopt another currency, sooner or later, and if there is no chance in a million to float the krona … why IMF and ICB want to float the Krona, work on capital control liberalization strategy in international perspective and strategy to float the Krona?!! Would not it be a very rare thing, would not it be a contradiction?!! Would not it be a trick?!!

/////////////////////////////////////////////

MONETARY AND EXCHANGE RATE POLICY (IMF-ICB)

It was agreed that both capital controls and firm interest rate policy would continue to be needed to maintain exchange rate stability. The existence of large nonresident krona holdings (amounting to some $5 billion, or 40 percent of GDP), and the
propensity of residents to invest abroad, suggest that without capital controls, outflows could
be very large. This rules out rapid capital account liberalization. However, even with capital
controls in place the level of interest rates remains a crucial consideration toward exchange
rate stability. There are current account flows which give a margin of choice between FX and
krona assets (for example, interest payments, which may be reinvested; and export proceeds, which may be kept in either FX or krona). And of course it is difficult to eliminate all channels for circumventing the controls, but possible to influence the opportunity cost of this with interest rates. It was agreed that a tightening of the administration of controls, and clarification of the path for control liberalization (in particular to emphasize that it would only be done in a gradual manner consistent with stability), would be essential to help take some of the pressure off of interest rate policy.

Today, November 6th, Krona is nothing because Krona does not float; so, neither 185 nor 188!

Anyway, where 188 Krona to the Euro?

HERE

USD 0,91% 125,46 126,11
GBP 1,09% 208,21 209,27
DKK 1,04% 25,111 25,262
NOK 0,95% 22,108 22,241
SEK 1,34% 17,973 18,082
CHF 1,11% 123,69 124,43
JPY 1,55% 1,3924 1,4012
EUR 1,04% 186,88 188,00
GVT 1,04% 239,14 240,66

AND WILL GET WORSE NEXT WEEK AND NEXT SPRING. DON´T BE SURPRISED IF WE GET 1 EUR 250 ISK AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT YEAR. IT WONT BE FOR TOO LONG BUT WE COULD SEE NUMBERS AROUND THAT FOR MANY WEEKS..

AND NOW, JUST WAIT UNTIL YOU START PAYING 50% OF TAXES ( INSTEAD OF THE ALREADY HIGH 38% YOU PAY NOW) THAT WILL MEAN THAT IF YOU ARE LUCKLY MAKING 1000 EUROS NOW, YOU WILL MAKE LIKE 800 THIS NEW COMING YEAR. THE AVERAGE SALARY IN ICELAND IS AROUND 140.000 ISK ( THE AVERAGE, NOT THE LOWEST, BECAUSE MANY PEOPLE GET PAID WAY LESS THAN THAT). SO THE AVERAGE SALARY IN ICELAND IS 750 EUROS A MONTH. NEXT YEAR, WITH THE NEW TAXES SYSTEM, PEOPLE HERE WILL BE MAKING 500 EUROS A MONTH. LETS SAY, THE SAME SALARIES AS IN ALBANIA OR ROMANIA. EVEN IN POLAND THEY ARE HAVING HIGHER SALARIES THAN IN ICELAND NOW.

I KNOW THAT YOU ALL KEEP LIVING IN DREAMS AND ROMANTIC FEELINGS BASED ON THE RICH ICELAND… BUT ICELAND IS POOR NOW, IT IS NOT JUST POOR, IT IS RUINED!!!

AND THA IS THE REALITY FOR MANY YEARS TO COME. I AM NOT BEING PESSIMISTIC I AM BEING REALISTIC.

EVEN IN SPAIN YOU GET 1200 FROM THE GOVERNMENT IF YOU ARE UNEMPLOYED AND HAVE JUST 1 CHILD. IN ICELAND, WORKING LIKE HELL, PEOPLE WILL GET 500 EUROS A MONTH… I KNOW, DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE. IT WILL TAKE ONE YEAR OR TWO FOR ICELANDERS TO PSYCHOLOGICALLY ADAPT TO THEIR NEW SITUATION OF BEING POOR.

WE CANNOT SAY THAT THINGS ARE THE SAME WHEN YOU HAVE TO PAY 100.000 ISK TO TRAVEL ABROAD FOR A TICKET THAT USES TO COST ONLY 40.000 ISK, OF THAT YOU HAVE TO PAY 367.000 ISK FOR A COMPUTER THAT COSTED 200.000ISK ONE YEAR AGO.

The UK base rate is currently abnormally low at 0.5%. It will raise again in 2010, unless the recession extends much longer than predicted, by at least 2%. No party atmosphere from increased base rates. That 5-fold increase will in increase the value of the pound against most currencies – that the way currency markets work.

This is an intersting piece of data: today at arround 2 o’clock the krona had lost about 1.3%, the central bank had to inject 3 million euros to put the krona back to about 185, so if 3,000,000 euros set the krona back 1.3% how much would 300 million set the krona back? it wold send the krona to 370ISK per euro. There are 6,000 billion euros of forign investeors in Iceland just waiting to fly away, lets say that through deals and some selling off the little that is left of the country we can manage to convince half of that money not to leave the country, so if only 3,000 million flee the contry we have a krona at about 3000ISK per euro, so either we have a 3000ISK per euro krona or we can not ever again float the krona, so, one thing or another the krona is dead, there is no cure for the ISK, we have to adopt other currency, sooner or later we have to do it, so the real value of the krona os CERO, there is no chance in a million to float the krona, and the moment they do it it will drop like what it really is, a dead fly.

“Just wait until US and UK start raising base rates back to normal levels (maybe next spring/summer) and Iceland is still gradually lowering its base rate. If the currency restrictions have been lifted in that climate, expect the ISK to be 30%-50% lower.”

What is normal level? Party atmosphere again? !!!

When USA and UK start raising rates again -impossible now-, perhaps, perhaps, ICB could not cut policy rate: ICB would raise it!

Currency restrictions will be lifted – must be lifted – in good climate!

“YOUR FORECAST IS OBSOLETE, TODAY THE EURO IS 188ISK, AND WILL GET WORSE, FOR THE KRONA OF COURSE… THE KRONA IS GOING TO ITS REAL VALUE THAT IS SOMETHING AROUND 250-350 ISK FOR 1 EURO. AND THAT IS BEING REALLY OPTIMIST…”

My forecast is not obsolete, and, when I did write “My forecast, of course, no more than 185 Krona to Euro” , I did mean: ‘oh, if more than 185 krona to the Euro ( 180-190 ): bye bye to my inflation forecast’ OK?!!

“TODAY THE EURO IS 188ISK”

Today, November 6th, Krona is nothing because Krona does not float; so, neither 185 nor 188!

Anyway, where 188 Krona to the Euro?

XE: 184,135.
Yahoo: 185,50.
Forex: 184,15. (high 184,57).
ICB: 186,11.
More???

“AND WILL GET WORSE”

ICB works, so it would not get worse! (200-220) (165-185)

“THE KRONA IS GOING TO ITS REAL VALUE THAT IS SOMETHING AROUND 250-350 ISK FOR 1 EURO. AND THAT IS BEING REALLY OPTIMIST…”

Its ‘real’ value is something around 210-220 krona for Euro now. And, it can get better with hard work! (Inflation, debts, foreign reserve, policy rate, banking, trade balance, …)

I understand your eagerness to score a goal: 350 Krona to the Euro. But, please, you must understand my desire: 185->170 Krona against Euro, and a happy country on next years!

Throw in the towel???? NEVER!!!

Interest rates on government bonds in UK and US are where next buble is. Expect much higher long term interst rate for both in coming years.

As to Icelandic Krona, it is looking at all matters it is most likely to settle around 180 to 200 EUR-ISK once floated and not on this ” managed float ” we have now.

After that 175-180, and within 3-5 years 155 range is likely with oil and gas taxation begin to come in.

There will be No EU member ship. And no Euro although with oil and gas a peg of ISK to EUR is perfectly likely.